Bitcoin used to vibe hard with that four-year halving cycle but the pattern straight up ghosted us lately. 🖤 Popular on-chain analyst Willy Woo chimed in with his latest spicy take suggesting BTC could flip toward a six-to-eight-year groove instead pulled by debt and liquidity flows straight from TradFi realms. 🌑
Halving Losing Its Grip? 💀
Woo points out the supply shock is fading fast after the April 2024 halving where fresh BTC issuance hit just 0.8% of total supply yearly and the next one in early 2028 will slash it to 0.4%. Check his full thread As miner output shrinks to nothing the halving loses its power to steer price swings so BTC might sync tighter with those classic debt cycles.
ETFs Stealing The Show 🕷️
Spot Bitcoin ETFs now sit on roughly 1.3 million BTC which is over 6% of everything in circulation while big public companies hoard another million or so. Together those heavy hitters control almost 12% way beyond what miners pump out yearly. 👻 The old cycle framework nailed it for ages but market structure flipped hard thanks to these inflows.
Some Voices Still Cling To Four Years 🔮
Galaxy Research dug into the data back in June and spotted the four-year rhythm still holding with BTC peaking around October 2025 right in the historical sweet spot. Past bears tanked 85% or worse yet the latest dip only hit 53% showing cycles are cooling off. 🦇
Maturing Into Gentler Swings 👁️
Arthur Hayes and Fidelity have also tossed shade at the four-year myth claiming the scene is evolving into smoother runs instead of wild boom bust chaos. 🌸 This shift feels way more degen aligned with real world liquidity waves.
Just another echo from the void by iconofsin.eth 💖
